- Horse Racing Dutching Tipster
- Horse Racing Dutching Tips
- Horse Racing Dutching Tips Today
- Horse Racing Dutching Tips 2020
- Horse Racing Dutching Tips For Beginners
How Al Capone's bookkeeper can help you to back 2 or more outcomes for profit!
When used selectively, this great strategy can be a real boon to your betting bank. Dutching is the ability to back 2 or more outcomes and profit if they win. This was a favoured method of betting for Al Capone's book-keeper, ‘Dutch' Schultz, when he fancied a flutter. Thankfully it is completely legitimate and allows us to create our own ‘underround'.
Simple Dutching occurs when the bettor places the same stake across all runners. This would obviously only have a chance to work when the odds on each horse were very close to the same. Stakes-Dutching or Set-Amount Dutching restricts the total amount of money bet. So, if a bettor uses $100 in this type of betting they must use the whole amount.
You see, the bookmakers operate to what's termed an overround in all of the sports they price up, horseracing included. If you were to convert the odds of all horses in a particular race into percentages, they will add up to greater that 100%. Why? The bookmakers must make a profit. Well, if the odds add up to exactly 100% we would be able to back every horse in the race and break even. Punters have differing opinions and so bookmakers have to factor in a profit in each race.
Let me show you an actual example: Phone bill mobile casino no deposit.
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Adecco 11/8
Clouding Over 2/1
Fantastic Arts 9/2
We have the best horse racing system in the country and we are ready to help you with speed ratings as well as today's horse racing betting. The Professional Syndicate provides horse a racing rating services that enables you to get the best bets of the day. We offer professional racing tips and help you bet on the best horse in every race. The mathematical equation behind Dutching is as follows: 1) Firstly, you need to calculate the implied probabilities using both selections' odds: Implied Probability of Horse A, the 10/1 runner, winning the event = (1 / (10/1 + 1)). 100 = 9.09%. Implied Probability of Horse B, the 5/1 runner, winning the event = (1 / (5/1 + 1)). 100 = 16.67%.
Cedar Rapids 9/1
Dramatic Quest 25/1
In order to translate odds to percentages we do the following:
Adecco: 11 divided by 8 = 1.375 Add one = 2.375 Divide 100 by 2.375 = 42.10%
Clouding Over: 2 divided by 1 = 2 Add one = 3 divide 100 by 3 = 33.33%
Fantastic Arts: 9 divided by 2 = 4.5 Add one = 5.5 divide by 100 = 18.18%
Cedar Rapids: 9 divided by 1 = 9 Add one = 10 divide 100 by 10 = 10%
Dramatic Quest: 25 divided by 1 = 25 Add one = 26 100 divided by 26 = 3.85%
The total percentage in this race is 107.46%.
The odds will always add up to greater than 100% if the bookmaker is doing his job right, the % difference above 100% is his profit.
Help! There is a free odds to % calculator available at http://www.bettingmad.com/calculator.asp which will help speed things along.
Profiting from the underround
In order to make a profit, we need to create an underround. That is, back those horses we fancy and leave the outsiders alone. Now using our example, let's see how we would dutch this race.
We can use the percentages here to determine the strength of certain selections. Adecco takes up 42.10% of the market, closely followed by Clouding Over at 33.33%. Added together, these 2 market leaders take up 75.44% of the total percentage of 107.46%.
We could say that, together, these 2 horses have a near 75% chance of winning, or more accurately 75/107.46 x 100 = 70%.
If we were to look at this race from the Racing Post's perspective, Spotlight has selected Adecco as its strongest bet of the day, but Clouding Over is being backed and has reduced in odds from 3/1 to 2/1. Which horse do I chose? It looks like a 2 horse race.
I can back both and make a profit if either wins!
That's right, if I use £1 =1% I could back Adecco for £42.10 and Clouding Over for £33.33, and make a profit of 100% – 42.10 – 33.33 = £24.56 or thereabouts if either horse wins.
If Adecco wins: I win £42.10 x 11 divided by 8 (the odds) = £57.89. I must take away my £33.33 staked on Clouding Over = £24.56 profit.
The way Points Betting works is once the spread is covered, a bettor makes 1x the wager per point away from the spread. The max win/loss for this particular wager was set at $600,000. Ravens prop bets Prop bets are based on individual performance, typically surrounding players. For example, Lamar Jackson's Week 14 rushing prop total against the Cleveland Browns was 86.5 yards.
If Clouding Over wins (which he did in this race): I win £33.33 x 2 divided by 1(the odds) = £66.66. I must take away the £42.10 staked on Adecco = £24.56 profit. If any of the other 3 horses won this race, I would naturally have lost.
Hang on Clive! Isn't Dutching the same as laying?
Yes, it is exactly the same as laying! With laying, if we oppose one horse, we naturally have the other horses running for us. I could have laid Fantastic Arts (the next shortest priced horse in the field) at 9/2 and had all 4 other horses running for me. But to win £25, my liability would have been £110 (this is what I would lose if Fantastic Arts wins).
It is entirely your decision here. You have the ‘insurance' of the other 4 horses running when you lay just one horse. You have paid an extra £35 for the privilege (backing Adecco and Clouding over to win the same amount costs £75.44).
The 9 key race criteria for dutching profits
I've found that the best races to use dutching as a staking tool is when the following criteria are met:
1. Small field races such as the one in our example,
with 2 strong market leaders, one of which is being backed and one of which is fancied by the pundits (in our example Clouding Over was being backed from 3/1 to 2/1 and Adecco was fancied by Spotlight in the Racing Post). Look for races where there are 2 clear market rivals, say at 6/4 and 7/4, in the betting forecast with the next horse at 5/1 or a big discrepancy in the odds. TIP – if the 2 market leaders are priced over evens, we can back them using the same stake and profit if either wins
2. Avoid maiden races: races where horses haven't won.There are too many imponderables here. Some horses will have no comparative form, and really could be anything. Maiden races sometimes throw up a shock for exactly this reason.
3. Avoid sellers – these horses are due to be sold by their current owners Why? Well, it's not because they are lightning quick and reliable!
4. Avoid banded stakes races. Predominantly held on the all weather, these races are mostly for poor performing horses, really to give the owners something to run them in. Now some banded stakes races will have regular good performers in this grade, most will not. Do not dismiss out of hand, but be aware that these races bring up shocks on many occasions.
5. Avoid National Hunt Flat races – known as bumpers – like maiden races, in some instances there is no comparative form and so no way to judge effectively the relative merits of each entrant in the race.
6. Avoid races in heavy going over marathon distances of 3 miles or over. Anything could happen during that 3 miles especially over obstacles.
7. Avoid 5 furlong sprints – again the favourite could miss the kick, and the draw plays a big part in these races.
Horse Racing Dutching Tipster
8. Look for races of 8 runners or less, or races where Spotlight (in the Racing Post) mentions 'plenty deadwood'. This indicates that there are many horses just making up the numbers.
9. If you can follow the live betting market, ensure that you include in your calculations any horses whose odds are shortening in the market. Perhaps you could also include 16/1 system selections.
I tend to use dutching as a tool for point 1 (small field races) on most occasions. There are 2 clear market leaders, but I'm unsure which horse will win.
Here's another example: Take the 2:25 at Wolverhampton on the 11th March 2006. The following horses lined up in this race over 6 furlongs: Bayeux 6/4, Graze On 10/3, Indian Maiden 7/1, Josh 7/1, Quito 8/1, Roman Maze 14/1, Treasure Cay 20/1, If Paradise 20/1, One More Round 20/1 and Orientor 25/1.
Immediately we can see that there are 2 horses who clearly head the betting market – Bayeux and Graze On. Bayeux is priced at 6/4 which in percentage terms is 40% (see if you can work that out using the previous formula) Graze On is priced at 10/3 or 23.08%.
If we were to back just these 2 horses the total % would equal 63.08%. Should either of these horses win, we win the difference between 100 and 63.08 = £36.92 if we were backing £1 = 1%. The next horse, Indian Maiden is priced at 7/1 which in % terms is 12.5%. I will add this horse to my ‘book'. My book now includes Graze On (who has won his last 4 races), Bayeux (very progressive) and Indian Maiden. The % is now 63.08+12.5=75.58%.
Looking at the race odds I am quite confident I can exclude all horses priced at 14/1 and over. This now leaves me with Quito and Josh. I will, for safety's sake, include one more horse to back, and it will be Josh at 7/1. This adds another 12.5% to my book, making it currently 75.58% + 12.5% = 88.08%. I am happy with this. I have now backed the following horses in this race:
Bayeux 6/4 £40 Graze on 10/3 £23.08 Indian Maiden 7/1 £12.5 Josh 7/1 £12.5 Total % = 88.08%.
If any of the horses win, I win the difference between 100 and 88.08 = £11.92.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips
As it happened, Bayeux won at 6/4. I won £40 x6 divided by 4=£60 minus the stakes for Graze on, Indian Maiden and Josh (23.08+12.5+12.5=£48.08) = £11.92 profit.
I was very confident in Bayeux initially, as well as Graze on, but wanted to play it safe. Of course, the fewer horses you select into your book, the more you win, BUT the greater the chance you will lose.
How would laying just one horse have faired against dutching our 4 chosen horses? Quito was the next shortest priced horse in this race at 8/1. To win £11.92 I would have a liability of £95.36, but I would have all of the other horses running for me. My insurance here costs an additional £7 and as long as Quito doesn't win, I win. Quito came 2nd incidentally.
It is always a good idea then to compare laying against dutching in all qualifying races. The bigger the field, the more inclined I would be to lay one horse and have the other horses running for me. The smaller the fields, with favourable conditions, the more inclined I would be to dutch.
Are there any downsides? Of course, if your selections don't win, you lose a large proportion of your betting bank which may be difficult to retrieve. That said, careful selection of races and discipline will see you right.
And don't worry about the complex calculations! There are free applications on the internet which will do the calculations for you if you punch in the odds.
Ggg vs canelo 2 stats. Are there any tipsters on the market?
Dutching tipsters are few and far between. Dutching relies on the most up to date odds in order to calculate correctly. However, we have looked at 2 services which deal in dutching.
RATED THE TOPS – not for service though! Rated The Tops intrigued me because the testimonials praised the service (don't they all!). I took it for a test drive and promptly began, what for me was, an interesting look into a dutching tipster service. However, the emails soon dried up and my calls and emails remained unanswered for some reason.
This service sends out selections in numerous races throughout the day to dutch. The problem here with dutching is that we are, admittedly, staking rather a large amount of money for relatively little gain, and if one of our selections in a particular race doesn't win, then we are in a situation where we have a large loss which has probably negated a large number of our previous winnings.
And there lies the problem with this service. It seems wholly unworkable because of the volume of daily selections and the inherent problems of coping with losses. For the £299 purchase price we also receive a manual which explains a dutching strategy which is common sense throughout. However, I cannot possibly recommend it for the price. Instead save your money and look at my 8 earlier points, and make dutching a tool you use as and when needed rather than as a mainstay of your betting income.
ONLY-A-TENNER: If you visit the website at http://www.onlyatenner.com/ you will find it littered with winner after winner after winner (naturally these were parts of multiple bets). The service also offers a bet placement dutching service for those of you at work, and they boast 100% strike rate at present which makes me umm and ahh a bit. It sounds a bit too perfect! www.onlyatenner.com – price £299. Avoid!
BET-IE – Dutching calculator
I highly recommend Bet-ie, a piece of software used solely in conjunction with the betting exchange Betfair.com. It dutches races on your behalf and purports to have an 80% strike rate with its dutched races when it signals them as 'excellent'. This 80% strike rate, with a suitable staking plan (please do contact me if you would like it for free) means that Bet-ie really is value for money.
What I really like about Bet-ie is the ability to change my target profit on specific horses. Let's take our previous example. Using Bet-ie I could back Bayeux, and instruct the calculator to break even if Graze On, Indian Maiden or Josh won. This maximizes my profit on Bayeux while offering me some insurance in the race.
Dutching need not be the preserve of horse racing. Do you think that a certain football team's result when playing another team will be low scoring? Well you can dutch the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 result if you think your chosen team will NOT lose.
Perhaps you feel a certain game will be good for the strikers. You can dutch the strikers of both teams to score the first goal (odds permitting of course). Ultimately dutching is only limited by your imagination.
Bet-ie is available at http://www.bettingprofitsoftware.com -priced at £97. Includes free access to dutching forum for sharing of ideas and strategies. Highly Recommended!
Dutching on horse racing
We have covered Dutching before in a number of articles, so read up on those specifics if you want to learn what Dutching is, how to do and how to use the specialist tools in Bet Angel to do perform a dutch bet. So this article is focused on what is the best Dutching strategy. But before we look at that, a quick appraisal on Dutching.
Speaking broadly, Dutching is a viable betting strategy on the betting exchanges now as the book overround is so small. A Dutch bet covers a number of selections in a sports betting market, rather than just one. This will increase your chances because you will win if any of those selections wins.
Bet Angel contains an advanced Dutching calculator. This means not only can you make multiple selections with your dutch bet, but you can also set a profit target, varying the profit not just the stake on each selection. But you can drive your risk and reward by varying the amount staked or the number of selections. So it makes for a good tool and strategy.
I often get questions focused on asking what selections should you make and is there any criteria that you should use? Are there dutching strategies that you can use, any Dutching systems?
The fact is there are there are loads of things that you can do, but it's really down to exactly what you're trying to achieve. Is it a question of having your insights into form? Or are you using a purely mechanical system? All those sort of questions can come up because it's down to what edge you think you can bring to market.
I hope this blog post can clear up some of these questions and help you gain a better understanding of dutching.
Understanding Dutching
Let's start with something that's quite simple, today we're looking at a market which is pictured above. You can see here we've got a novice chaser at Ludlow. If I go into the dutching area and click on the favourite we're going to Dutch for a target profit of £50.
If I click on the favourite, can you see the favourite makes up 33% of the book. So the favourite is one third of the market.
The market thinks the favourite has the 33% chance of winning, do you? If you do, then you should back it! If you don't think that, you should lay it.
But what happens when you're dutching? As you can see below, if we just click on that first favourite we're effectively just backing the favourite. It simply becomes a value judgement.
The first thing that you know and you realise with dutching is if that the price on the favourite is really short, all you're effectively doing is placing a value back bet. Therefore, you may as well just place a bet, as you don't really deliver much value on top of dutching.
The only thing I would say is if you use a fixed stake and you use dutching to place your back bet, then you're effectively backing in a proportion to the stake and the book percentage. So actually if you place a back bet this way rather than using a fixed stake then over time, if you're achieving value after commission, your bank will expand getting bigger and bigger.
So there is an advantage to using dutching to place a back bet, but essentially you're trying to avoid just placing a back bet you want to do something a bit cleverer.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips Today
So what do you select when Dutching?
In this example I'm using for this blog post, the market is a four runner market. I don't particularly like four runner markets for trading for anything, to be honest, but let's have a look at it and see how we can showcase Dutching.
Fantastic Arts: 9 divided by 2 = 4.5 Add one = 5.5 divide by 100 = 18.18%
Cedar Rapids: 9 divided by 1 = 9 Add one = 10 divide 100 by 10 = 10%
Dramatic Quest: 25 divided by 1 = 25 Add one = 26 100 divided by 26 = 3.85%
The total percentage in this race is 107.46%.
The odds will always add up to greater than 100% if the bookmaker is doing his job right, the % difference above 100% is his profit.
Help! There is a free odds to % calculator available at http://www.bettingmad.com/calculator.asp which will help speed things along.
Profiting from the underround
In order to make a profit, we need to create an underround. That is, back those horses we fancy and leave the outsiders alone. Now using our example, let's see how we would dutch this race.
We can use the percentages here to determine the strength of certain selections. Adecco takes up 42.10% of the market, closely followed by Clouding Over at 33.33%. Added together, these 2 market leaders take up 75.44% of the total percentage of 107.46%.
We could say that, together, these 2 horses have a near 75% chance of winning, or more accurately 75/107.46 x 100 = 70%.
If we were to look at this race from the Racing Post's perspective, Spotlight has selected Adecco as its strongest bet of the day, but Clouding Over is being backed and has reduced in odds from 3/1 to 2/1. Which horse do I chose? It looks like a 2 horse race.
I can back both and make a profit if either wins!
That's right, if I use £1 =1% I could back Adecco for £42.10 and Clouding Over for £33.33, and make a profit of 100% – 42.10 – 33.33 = £24.56 or thereabouts if either horse wins.
If Adecco wins: I win £42.10 x 11 divided by 8 (the odds) = £57.89. I must take away my £33.33 staked on Clouding Over = £24.56 profit.
The way Points Betting works is once the spread is covered, a bettor makes 1x the wager per point away from the spread. The max win/loss for this particular wager was set at $600,000. Ravens prop bets Prop bets are based on individual performance, typically surrounding players. For example, Lamar Jackson's Week 14 rushing prop total against the Cleveland Browns was 86.5 yards.
If Clouding Over wins (which he did in this race): I win £33.33 x 2 divided by 1(the odds) = £66.66. I must take away the £42.10 staked on Adecco = £24.56 profit. If any of the other 3 horses won this race, I would naturally have lost.
Hang on Clive! Isn't Dutching the same as laying?
Yes, it is exactly the same as laying! With laying, if we oppose one horse, we naturally have the other horses running for us. I could have laid Fantastic Arts (the next shortest priced horse in the field) at 9/2 and had all 4 other horses running for me. But to win £25, my liability would have been £110 (this is what I would lose if Fantastic Arts wins).
It is entirely your decision here. You have the ‘insurance' of the other 4 horses running when you lay just one horse. You have paid an extra £35 for the privilege (backing Adecco and Clouding over to win the same amount costs £75.44).
The 9 key race criteria for dutching profits
I've found that the best races to use dutching as a staking tool is when the following criteria are met:
1. Small field races such as the one in our example,
with 2 strong market leaders, one of which is being backed and one of which is fancied by the pundits (in our example Clouding Over was being backed from 3/1 to 2/1 and Adecco was fancied by Spotlight in the Racing Post). Look for races where there are 2 clear market rivals, say at 6/4 and 7/4, in the betting forecast with the next horse at 5/1 or a big discrepancy in the odds. TIP – if the 2 market leaders are priced over evens, we can back them using the same stake and profit if either wins
2. Avoid maiden races: races where horses haven't won.There are too many imponderables here. Some horses will have no comparative form, and really could be anything. Maiden races sometimes throw up a shock for exactly this reason.
3. Avoid sellers – these horses are due to be sold by their current owners Why? Well, it's not because they are lightning quick and reliable!
4. Avoid banded stakes races. Predominantly held on the all weather, these races are mostly for poor performing horses, really to give the owners something to run them in. Now some banded stakes races will have regular good performers in this grade, most will not. Do not dismiss out of hand, but be aware that these races bring up shocks on many occasions.
5. Avoid National Hunt Flat races – known as bumpers – like maiden races, in some instances there is no comparative form and so no way to judge effectively the relative merits of each entrant in the race.
6. Avoid races in heavy going over marathon distances of 3 miles or over. Anything could happen during that 3 miles especially over obstacles.
7. Avoid 5 furlong sprints – again the favourite could miss the kick, and the draw plays a big part in these races.
Horse Racing Dutching Tipster
8. Look for races of 8 runners or less, or races where Spotlight (in the Racing Post) mentions 'plenty deadwood'. This indicates that there are many horses just making up the numbers.
9. If you can follow the live betting market, ensure that you include in your calculations any horses whose odds are shortening in the market. Perhaps you could also include 16/1 system selections.
I tend to use dutching as a tool for point 1 (small field races) on most occasions. There are 2 clear market leaders, but I'm unsure which horse will win.
Here's another example: Take the 2:25 at Wolverhampton on the 11th March 2006. The following horses lined up in this race over 6 furlongs: Bayeux 6/4, Graze On 10/3, Indian Maiden 7/1, Josh 7/1, Quito 8/1, Roman Maze 14/1, Treasure Cay 20/1, If Paradise 20/1, One More Round 20/1 and Orientor 25/1.
Immediately we can see that there are 2 horses who clearly head the betting market – Bayeux and Graze On. Bayeux is priced at 6/4 which in percentage terms is 40% (see if you can work that out using the previous formula) Graze On is priced at 10/3 or 23.08%.
If we were to back just these 2 horses the total % would equal 63.08%. Should either of these horses win, we win the difference between 100 and 63.08 = £36.92 if we were backing £1 = 1%. The next horse, Indian Maiden is priced at 7/1 which in % terms is 12.5%. I will add this horse to my ‘book'. My book now includes Graze On (who has won his last 4 races), Bayeux (very progressive) and Indian Maiden. The % is now 63.08+12.5=75.58%.
Looking at the race odds I am quite confident I can exclude all horses priced at 14/1 and over. This now leaves me with Quito and Josh. I will, for safety's sake, include one more horse to back, and it will be Josh at 7/1. This adds another 12.5% to my book, making it currently 75.58% + 12.5% = 88.08%. I am happy with this. I have now backed the following horses in this race:
Bayeux 6/4 £40 Graze on 10/3 £23.08 Indian Maiden 7/1 £12.5 Josh 7/1 £12.5 Total % = 88.08%.
If any of the horses win, I win the difference between 100 and 88.08 = £11.92.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips
As it happened, Bayeux won at 6/4. I won £40 x6 divided by 4=£60 minus the stakes for Graze on, Indian Maiden and Josh (23.08+12.5+12.5=£48.08) = £11.92 profit.
I was very confident in Bayeux initially, as well as Graze on, but wanted to play it safe. Of course, the fewer horses you select into your book, the more you win, BUT the greater the chance you will lose.
How would laying just one horse have faired against dutching our 4 chosen horses? Quito was the next shortest priced horse in this race at 8/1. To win £11.92 I would have a liability of £95.36, but I would have all of the other horses running for me. My insurance here costs an additional £7 and as long as Quito doesn't win, I win. Quito came 2nd incidentally.
It is always a good idea then to compare laying against dutching in all qualifying races. The bigger the field, the more inclined I would be to lay one horse and have the other horses running for me. The smaller the fields, with favourable conditions, the more inclined I would be to dutch.
Are there any downsides? Of course, if your selections don't win, you lose a large proportion of your betting bank which may be difficult to retrieve. That said, careful selection of races and discipline will see you right.
And don't worry about the complex calculations! There are free applications on the internet which will do the calculations for you if you punch in the odds.
Ggg vs canelo 2 stats. Are there any tipsters on the market?
Dutching tipsters are few and far between. Dutching relies on the most up to date odds in order to calculate correctly. However, we have looked at 2 services which deal in dutching.
RATED THE TOPS – not for service though! Rated The Tops intrigued me because the testimonials praised the service (don't they all!). I took it for a test drive and promptly began, what for me was, an interesting look into a dutching tipster service. However, the emails soon dried up and my calls and emails remained unanswered for some reason.
This service sends out selections in numerous races throughout the day to dutch. The problem here with dutching is that we are, admittedly, staking rather a large amount of money for relatively little gain, and if one of our selections in a particular race doesn't win, then we are in a situation where we have a large loss which has probably negated a large number of our previous winnings.
And there lies the problem with this service. It seems wholly unworkable because of the volume of daily selections and the inherent problems of coping with losses. For the £299 purchase price we also receive a manual which explains a dutching strategy which is common sense throughout. However, I cannot possibly recommend it for the price. Instead save your money and look at my 8 earlier points, and make dutching a tool you use as and when needed rather than as a mainstay of your betting income.
ONLY-A-TENNER: If you visit the website at http://www.onlyatenner.com/ you will find it littered with winner after winner after winner (naturally these were parts of multiple bets). The service also offers a bet placement dutching service for those of you at work, and they boast 100% strike rate at present which makes me umm and ahh a bit. It sounds a bit too perfect! www.onlyatenner.com – price £299. Avoid!
BET-IE – Dutching calculator
I highly recommend Bet-ie, a piece of software used solely in conjunction with the betting exchange Betfair.com. It dutches races on your behalf and purports to have an 80% strike rate with its dutched races when it signals them as 'excellent'. This 80% strike rate, with a suitable staking plan (please do contact me if you would like it for free) means that Bet-ie really is value for money.
What I really like about Bet-ie is the ability to change my target profit on specific horses. Let's take our previous example. Using Bet-ie I could back Bayeux, and instruct the calculator to break even if Graze On, Indian Maiden or Josh won. This maximizes my profit on Bayeux while offering me some insurance in the race.
Dutching need not be the preserve of horse racing. Do you think that a certain football team's result when playing another team will be low scoring? Well you can dutch the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 result if you think your chosen team will NOT lose.
Perhaps you feel a certain game will be good for the strikers. You can dutch the strikers of both teams to score the first goal (odds permitting of course). Ultimately dutching is only limited by your imagination.
Bet-ie is available at http://www.bettingprofitsoftware.com -priced at £97. Includes free access to dutching forum for sharing of ideas and strategies. Highly Recommended!
Dutching on horse racing
We have covered Dutching before in a number of articles, so read up on those specifics if you want to learn what Dutching is, how to do and how to use the specialist tools in Bet Angel to do perform a dutch bet. So this article is focused on what is the best Dutching strategy. But before we look at that, a quick appraisal on Dutching.
Speaking broadly, Dutching is a viable betting strategy on the betting exchanges now as the book overround is so small. A Dutch bet covers a number of selections in a sports betting market, rather than just one. This will increase your chances because you will win if any of those selections wins.
Bet Angel contains an advanced Dutching calculator. This means not only can you make multiple selections with your dutch bet, but you can also set a profit target, varying the profit not just the stake on each selection. But you can drive your risk and reward by varying the amount staked or the number of selections. So it makes for a good tool and strategy.
I often get questions focused on asking what selections should you make and is there any criteria that you should use? Are there dutching strategies that you can use, any Dutching systems?
The fact is there are there are loads of things that you can do, but it's really down to exactly what you're trying to achieve. Is it a question of having your insights into form? Or are you using a purely mechanical system? All those sort of questions can come up because it's down to what edge you think you can bring to market.
I hope this blog post can clear up some of these questions and help you gain a better understanding of dutching.
Understanding Dutching
Let's start with something that's quite simple, today we're looking at a market which is pictured above. You can see here we've got a novice chaser at Ludlow. If I go into the dutching area and click on the favourite we're going to Dutch for a target profit of £50.
If I click on the favourite, can you see the favourite makes up 33% of the book. So the favourite is one third of the market.
The market thinks the favourite has the 33% chance of winning, do you? If you do, then you should back it! If you don't think that, you should lay it.
But what happens when you're dutching? As you can see below, if we just click on that first favourite we're effectively just backing the favourite. It simply becomes a value judgement.
The first thing that you know and you realise with dutching is if that the price on the favourite is really short, all you're effectively doing is placing a value back bet. Therefore, you may as well just place a bet, as you don't really deliver much value on top of dutching.
The only thing I would say is if you use a fixed stake and you use dutching to place your back bet, then you're effectively backing in a proportion to the stake and the book percentage. So actually if you place a back bet this way rather than using a fixed stake then over time, if you're achieving value after commission, your bank will expand getting bigger and bigger.
So there is an advantage to using dutching to place a back bet, but essentially you're trying to avoid just placing a back bet you want to do something a bit cleverer.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips Today
So what do you select when Dutching?
In this example I'm using for this blog post, the market is a four runner market. I don't particularly like four runner markets for trading for anything, to be honest, but let's have a look at it and see how we can showcase Dutching.
If we click on the second favourite, we can cover 63% of the entire field. What I'm trying to show here is out of the 4 runners, we've backed two of them. So we now have covered 50% of the field with a 60% chance of winning.
So your judgement here is asking yourself whether these two runners have a better than 60% chance of winning this race? Because if they do, then you would tend to take this particular position, but you can see here that it's not a very exciting position.
However, you're still sort of in the realms of value backing. Effectively, you're not doing anything particularly clever and it's just not that interesting. Obviously, it could be the case that the 2:25 at Ludlow could be really exciting! But… we're just saying from a strategy perspective whether this makes sense.
Is there some logic in the way in which we've approached this and a forerunner market covering half the field for a 64% chance, you may find something in there but I suspect that its probably not the best place to look for an edge.
How Dutching can give you the edge
So if we have a look down the market, there are lots of different races on today's example which you can see in the image above. It is clear that some are better than others. However, if we skip forwards to the 14:50 at Doncaster we can follow the same progress again and see where we end up.
If we look at the favourite on this new race, you can see in the image above that it has got 15% of the book. It's saying that there's a 50% chance the favourite is going to win.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips 2020
So let's try and get that up to around 60% by dutching and see what happens…
Firstly I've checked that we have 13 selections in this market. So, if I back the first six you can see that covering 67% of the implied chance gets a six selections out of a 13 runner a market.
Now if we look down towards the bottom you can see that some of these horse have smaller odds. Overall, can you see that we're in a good position if 6 horses out of the 13 horses win this race. So we actually give ourselves a much broader mix in terms of the chance of some of these runners going on to win.
Whereas when we looked at the four runner market, we were just basically punting the front two! This gives you a much wider coverage and more interest within the market than narrowing your focus down to those two out of that forerunner field.
Therefore the second example clearly seems like a better proposition overall doesn't it? Now, obviously some of this will come into the mix in terms of ‘do you think that one of these six is going to win the race?'
Summary
The scope to find a winner in the second example is much better than the first race. Not only is this because of the large number of selections, but those selections are better. Rather than just placing what is effectively a back bet, but we are also covering more selections and account for more variability in the result of the race.
Horse Racing Dutching Tips For Beginners
Our focus on multiple runners is more or less what Dutching is all about. If you spread your risk across more selections then the chance of error is reduced and any overround in the book is spread over all those selections. If you just focus on one runner, as we did in our first example, the spread in the market is focused on that one selection, reducing our chances of long term profitability.
So when you focus on your Dutching strategy, find a range of selections to reduce your variability. Or you just end up looking for a value bet on smaller fields and that more or less negates the logic for placing a dutch bet in the first place.
Focus on markets where the outcome is the hardest to spot. That is where the best opporunties lie and where you are most likey to profit in the long term using this particular Betfair trading strategy.